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Natalie Fridman, Tomer Zilberstein, and
Gal A. Kaminka. Predicting Demonstrations' Violence Level Using Qualitative Reasoning. In International Conference
on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction (SBP-2011), pp. 42–50, 2011.
(unavailable)
In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups,and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We usequalitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modelingcrowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contributeto the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existingtheories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, basedon social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict theoutcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believethat this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing ofsocial sciences theories.
@InProceedings{sbp11,
author = {Natalie Fridman and Tomer Zilberstein and Gal A. Kaminka},
title = {Predicting Demonstrations' Violence Level Using Qualitative Reasoning},
booktitle = {International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction ({SBP}-2011)},
OPTcrossref = {},
OPTeditor = {John J. Salerno and
Shanchieh Jay Yang and
Dana S. Nau and
Sun-Ki Chai},
OPTkey = {},
pages = {42--50},
year = {2011},
OPTvolume = {},
OPTnumber = {},
OPTseries = {},
OPTaddress = {},
OPTmonth = {},
OPTorganization = {},
OPTpublisher = {},
OPTnote = {},
OPTannote = {},
OPTurl = {},
OPTdoi = {},
OPTissn = {},
OPTlocalfile = {},
abstract = {In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups,
and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use
qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling
crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute
to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing
theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based
on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the
outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believe
that this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing of
social sciences theories.},
wwwnote = {},
}
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