Gal A. Kaminka's Publications

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Predicting Demonstrations' Violence Level Using Qualitative Reasoning

Natalie Fridman, Tomer Zilberstein, and Gal A. Kaminka. Predicting Demonstrations' Violence Level Using Qualitative Reasoning. In International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction (SBP-2011), pp. 42–50, 2011.

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Abstract

In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups, and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believethat this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing ofsocial sciences theories.

Additional Information

BibTeX

@InProceedings{sbp11,
author = {Natalie Fridman and Tomer Zilberstein and Gal A. Kaminka},
title = {Predicting Demonstrations' Violence Level Using Qualitative Reasoning},
booktitle = {International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction ({SBP}-2011)},
OPTcrossref = {},
OPTeditor    = {John J. Salerno and
               Shanchieh Jay Yang and
               Dana S. Nau and
               Sun-Ki Chai},
OPTkey = {},
pages = {42--50},
year = {2011},
OPTvolume = {},
OPTnumber = {},
OPTseries = {},
OPTaddress = {},
OPTmonth = {},
OPTorganization = {},
OPTpublisher = {},
OPTnote = {},
OPTannote = {},
OPTurl = {},
OPTdoi = {},
OPTissn = {},
OPTlocalfile = {},
abstract = {In this paper we describe a method for modeling social behavior of large groups, 
and apply it to the problem of predicting potential violence during demonstrations. We use 
qualitative reasoning techniques which to our knowledge have never been applied to modeling 
crowd behaviors, nor in particular to demonstrations. Such modeling may not only contribute 
to the police decision making process, but can also provide a great opportunity to test existing 
theories in social science. We incrementally present and compare three qualitative models, based 
on social science theories. The results show that while two of these models fail to predict the 
outcomes of real-world events reported and analyzed in the literature, one model is successful. We believe
that this demonstrates the efficacy of qualitative reasoning in the development and testing of
social sciences theories.},
  wwwnote = {}, 
}

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